EXODUS
Study Methodology
Key dates
The study was conceived and designed in March 2021.
Preparatory work was concluded on it in mid-April 2021.
The survey itself was conducted over four months from mid-May to mid-October.
First set of results became available at the end of October.
Preambles
Part of a country’s strength is in its human capital. This is defined by OECD as the knowledge, skills, competencies and other attributes embodied in individuals or groups of individuals acquired during their life and used to produce goods, services or ideas in market circumstances”.
For a country, human capital is the gross total of the attributes of all its citizens.
It is no secret that Nigeria as a country has been unable to gainfully us its human capital. As an example, most of those trained to support the healthcare services – to include the nurses, doctors and pharmacists have been lost to other countries that have welcomed them with open hands and offered them attractive packages. While Nigeria expends its resources on training nurses and doctors for example, most of these essential workers end up in Europe and other parts of the world.
This project was aimed at finding out the scale of the problem of brain drain and loss of human capital.
Our main objective
As part of our preparation for Yoruba Nation, it is important for us to clearly understand what the situation of human capital of the new nation will be. It is necessary for us to know the dynamics of the inflow and outflow of key factors of production for the socio-economic development of the nation, and in particular, that of its human capital. It is important to understand the mindset of those who will be expected to contribute to the building of the nation.
The question that we would need to answer both at macro and microlevels is, what level of patriotism and individual sacrifice could be expected for the new nation.
Analyses of results from this study should help us shed some light on this element
Main focus
While we had initially planned to focus the study on the territories of the southwestern Nigeria, it became obvious that this would be conceptually impractical. Intranational mobility within Nigeria has meant that a significant percentage of those who will be expected to contribute to nation-building do in fact presently live in other states within the country.
Nevertheless, we planned to put a spotlight on some key issues of interest to Yoruba Nation during the analysis stage.
Survey population
The survey population was set as all “active population” in Nigeria. The OECD definition describes it as comprising all persons above a specified age whose activity status, as determined in terms of the total number of weeks or days during a long-specified period was either employed or unemployed. For the purpose of the study, as a way of better focusing the attention, an upper limit of 60 years was set. We reckon that most of those who are emigration-prone would fall within this range.
The sampling method
A combination of stratified and quota systems was used as the survey population sampling method. This enabled an intentional weighting tilt towards the focal strata.
Sample size
An initial sample size of 2500 was extracted randomly within all the strata as defined. At the stage of refining the sample, the sample size dropped to 2343 resulting from duplication of some in the extracted sample. No efforts were made to bring the total back to 2500.
Survey Questionnaire
Pre-testing
The questionnaire was pre-tested with a cross-section sample of 52. The objective of the pre-testing was to listen to any noise or possible conceptual errors.
Based on the outcome of this exercise, the questionnaire was slightly adjusted.
Noise and bias in the questionnaire
EDUCATION
The initial questionnaire had “Education” as one of the options for wanting to leave the country. Responses received from the pre-testing showed a highly disproportionate use of this option as a reason. This being used as the default reason provided, indicated an obvious bias and noise which could potentially render the findings of the study unreliable.
Consequently, this option was excluded from the revised questionnaire used for the study.
Response and response rates
The survey was conducted by a mix of e-mailing, telephoning and various social media platforms, as the respondent felt comfortable with.
A total of 1979 responses were recorded representing a little above 84%. Some 102 respondents were either deemed not credible or provided item non-responses. This reduced the response rate to roughly 80%.
In terms of geographical coverage, results from two states, Bornu and Sokoto could not be taken into account because of the quality of responses, and difficulties with verifications.
